Newspaper,
Date: 1/11/2020
Headline1:”Terrorists
looted Nuclear weapons from Pakistan’s army”; Headline2:”Cyber Attack destroyed
Indian Information and Technology Industry”; Headline3:”Thousands of Villages
in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh submerged due to high water level in Ganga”;Headline4:”Haryana
Police seized arms and drugs worth rupees
five thousands crores”.
All
these headlines somehow present the persistent threats to Indian National
Security and their continued challenges in coming years. National security as a
concept has always been at the core of Indian policy making but it has been
rightly argued that government has till now taken a compartmentalised view of
national security. For example: Internal security, External Security, Different
mechanism is adopted to deal with Pakistan and China, Food Security, Energy
Security, Drugs, Communal riots, Cyber crime, and other threats have been seen as different
issues but now the time has arrived to look all these in a integrated manner.
Because with technological innovations and increasing complexities in various
spheres of human life, all these security concerns seems to be cause and
product of each other. These threats are evolving with passage of time and have
been spreading their wings to domestic as well as external boundaries.
Threats to national
security have been major concern even before India started becoming Nation.
Historically if we see, it was mainly limited to securing the territorial
boundary of state. For example: During ancient or medieval time during
different empires like Gupta, Maratha or Mughals etc. Kautilya in Arthasastra
has also given prime importance to securing territorial boundaries by all
means.
It got a new
perspective after Industrial revolution when colonialism and Imperialism
started becoming a reality and western countries particularly Britain colonised
India and may other Asian-African countries. It challenged each and every
aspect of Nation’s sovereignty. The exploitative nature of these countries gave
rise to issues such as poverty, dissatisfaction among indigenous people,
inequality which further gave rise to many internal security challenges and
India is still suffering from communal tensions due to the “Divide and Rule
policy” of Britishers.
After Independence the
major threat to national security was poverty, Food insecurity, Underdevelopment,
Communal riots etc which was not only challenging the nation building effort
but also the external frontier due to more focus on internal problems which India saw in forms of 1962,1965 and
1971 wars. Any country needs to spend so much economic, human resources to
tackle regular internal security challenges that it ultimately not only affect
social, economic and political stability of the nation but also weaken its
external frontiers.
All of the threats have
reflections in contemporary times and seeing the progress and preparedness of
the country, it seems that they will have bearing in coming future too. But
India in spite of being the fastest emerging economy of the world, with second
largest population, largest demographic dividend, promoter of human rights and
world peace is yet to find its real place in the world. Though India is moving
with a good pace, strengthening its political, economic, diplomatic and
technological power in world but still face various challenges. So it is
necessary to point out some major challenges which are not only threatening now
but will be major factors in coming decades also.
As per various surveys
and India’s current rate of population growth, it has been predicted that it
will surpass China by 2050. India having only around 2 percent of world land
cannot be able to feed our population. It also causes energy insecurity in the
country as we are dependent on our imports for this purpose and world has
already witnessed various wars between different countries for energy needs.
Both of these directly affects environment. Many of the Indian cities with
large population and energy demands are already listed in world’s most polluted
places(for example Delhi, Kanpur etc) which again results in sickness and
mental issues leading to conflicts disturbing economic and social status of the
individual and society. India is already facing water crisis which creates
conflict not only within the country (Kaveri river issue – recent agitation in
Karnatka leading to law and order issues and giving rise to hatred among people
of TamilNadu and karnatka which may result into regionalism/linguistic problems.
It finally endanger nation unity and integrity, Krishna river issue) but also
impact India’s relation with other neighbouring countries like China, Pakistan.
It has been rightly predicted that the third world war may be fought for water.
Health hazards could also be a major threat to country if spending is not
increased on health infrastructure.
The other major threat
is result of technologic revolution in the 20th century which has
already started deciding the Peace and security of not only India but the whole
world i.e. “Cyber Attacks”. It is threatening the internal structures through
various mechanisms such as identity theft, exploitation of women and children on
internet, hacking of government websites (for example- recently National Green Tribunal
website was hacked), Pornography etc. Along with that since most of the
government and private infrastructure, process, banking etc are getting
digitised it possesses a great challenge to secure them. Incidents like WIKI
leaks, cyber crimes leading to financial malpractices like compromising bank
accounts cause billions of dollor loss to individuals. For example recently in
India, hacking of lakhs of State bank of India and other bank’s ATMs.
Cyber space has become
very wide and our dependency on it is also increasing day by day. With
government initiatives like Digital India, Government Process Re-engineering
and technological innovations like Cloud computing, most of the public and
private data are now stored on various networks. Any malpractice with them can
lead to loss of important data, privacy. In this age of knowledge economy any deliberate
attempt to play with data can lead to conflicts between various countries. For
example email leaks of various nation heads, data theft of oil companies etc.
Further one major
threat which is global in nature is climate change. The challenge of balancing
development with environment is becoming huge inspite of national (Clean cess, solar
energy) and global efforts (Paris Pact etc).IT is well established fact that
climate change is going to impact the developing and poor countries the most.
India has large population below poverty line which demands sustained
development in the country and at the same time has a large coastline. The
effects of climate change are already visible with erratic monsoon pattern,
increasing sea water level etc. Though India has always shown leadership in
this regard for example recently India accepted a huge INDC target but it need
to put its agenda with other poor and developing nations more strongly in front
of developed nation particularly USA and European countries.
The most serious threat
to internal security to India is communalism and naxalism. Ex. Prime minister
of India Dr. Manmohan Singh categorised Naxalism as the biggest threat. Though
the problems seems to be declined in recent years but it may further arise as
the major growth and development works need to end this problem has not yet
been fully implemented. Increasing transnational crimes and organised crimes
and their support to Maoists for mutual gains can compound the problem to a
higher degree. The problem may further become more serious with any damage in
India’s bilateral relation with neighbouring countries like China or Nepal
(recent Madheshi issues in Nepal and China’s continuous effort to align Nepal
to its side may create issues)
India is historically
known as ‘the Land of religions’ and promoter of world peace. But communal
harmony has got a setback due to various reasons (vote bank politics,
inappropriate use of social media by anti social agents to disturb peace etc)
in recent past. Recent incidents like Burning of Indian Flag, Anti India
slogans, Dadri lynching and repeated small/big riots in country challenges the
basic premise of our constitution. Radical organisation in the country as well
as outside the country (ASIQ, ISIS, LeT, SIMI, Hindu organisations etc) are
trying to make use of misunderstanding and disturb the country. But thanks to
our age old mature civilisation that they have not been successful in their
efforts.
The other major threats
to National security includes terrorism, drugs trafficking, circulation of fake
currency. Geographically India lies between two major areas which are
historically infamous for drug trafficking i.e. Afghanistan on western side and
Golden triangle (Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand) on the eastern side. According to
the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) opium cultivation in the
Golden Triangle went up by 22 per cent in 2013. This registered a 26 per cent
rise from 2012 in opium cultivation.
Drugs cause not only health issue but destroy financial status of the
country. It is again supported by organised criminal and transnational crimes.
It may further be compounded due to changing habits and with improving
financial status.
Terrorism which has
redefined the global order is also one of the biggest challenges to India. The
Mumbai bomb blast of 1993, Attack of 2008 and recent attack on Pathankot Air
force station is still afresh in people’s mind. Pakistan’s state policy of
promoting terrorism in India does not seem to be stopped in near future. Their
influence on young but poor people as well as radicalisation of even highly
educated Indians (IT engineers, Medical practioners and others) through social
media and other means can weaken our strong social fabric. On the top of that
the required measures to check these have not been adopted yet. National
Counter terrorism centre (NCTC) which was designed post Mumbai attacks for
better coordination among different states (As police is state subject) is
still a distant dream. IT policy for better regulation of social media has not
been designed. Police reforms are still lying on papers. India also has a large
coastline. Mumbai Attack of 2008 clearly signifies the importance of sea lane
security.
Circulation of fake
currency in the country can break the backbone of Indian economy. It is further
compounded by black money earned through corruption. Corruption (2G scam, Coal
Scam, Commonwealth game scam) in India has taken a systematic form and the parallel
economy created due to these problems translates into other security
challenges. Though government in recent past has taken various steps to check
it like RTI, Income declaration scheme, Benami property Act etc but only
stringent implementation of these acts can bring changes which are also not
visible. Elections are considered to be the root cause of corruption as it
requires huge funding. So electoral reforms, reforms in bureaucracy is
required. But as Status Quo is one of the features to maintain power, it also
doesn’t seem to happen in near future. Along with that the declining
institutional capacity and unethical political practices (criminalisation of
politics and politicisation of criminals, crony-capitalism) shows it as major
threat to national security.
Territorially if we see
then China and Pakistan are major threats. The continuing border dispute and
China’s emergence as greater economic power shows that in near future it may
not engage in direct war but it would try to curtail the strategic clout of India
in Asia-Led-World order. Its project One Belt one Road, policy of string of
pearls and proactive approach in engaging neighbouring countries shows that in
near future, china could be a greater challenge.
Pakistan being a
nuclear state and failed democracy is always a challenge to India. They have
recently developed tactical nuclear warheads but presence of large number of
terrorist groups in its territory not only threatens India but itself also.
Though Pakistan is nowhere near to India’s might in any sphere (specially armed
forces) but in case if these weapons of mass destruction are taken by terrorist
groups, it may disturb the whole world order primarily India. For example:
Terrorists were successful in attacking Pakistan’s major air force base. India’s
continuous effort to bring a comprehensive framework against terrorism in
United Nation is still not fructified due to vested interest of major powerful
countries.
Apart from these Asian
Challenges, developed nation as a whole also posseses indirect threats to
Indian security concerns. Vested interests led policies of USA and other
western countries has disrupted the peace of Gulf region which have endangered
the India’s energy prospects and threaten the security of Indian diasporas.
Along with that their
biased approach in global organizations and trade regimes also threatens
India’s interest along with third world countries. Their bid to avoid Doha
agenda in recent WTO –Nairobi talks and lack of interest in reforming global
governance institutions (WB,IFC) shows that in coming decade India has to
rethink strategy and need to come with full force to restrict the exploitative
interests of developed nations. India ranks very low in Ease of doing business
which is a major cause of low investment that leads to low job creation and
thus our demographic dividend may turn into demographic disaster. Jobless young
people are more prone to radicalized or move to wrong paths.
In coming decade
India’s external threat will be more compounded due to continued Institutional
incapacity of global institution. India’s domestic need of energy, place in
global leadership requires the independent functioning of institutions and have
a democratic representation. But due to power tussle between major powers and
bilateral rivalry has reduced the pace of reform process of UNSC,WB,IMF, NSG
(challenging our nuclear energy needs)
and India is still struggling for permanent seat in coming decade too, if
efforts are not taken.
It becomes more problematic
when there is large presence of illiteracy and unawareness. Certain section of
society still live in old age, follow many superstitions and are not ready to
accept scientifically proved new trend. Though society is legally and constitutionally
equal but equality in real term is still a far dream. The societal divide becomes
more problematic when other development dimension fails to fill the divide.
Various social issues like child marriage, dowry, unnecessary spending on
marriage and other functions (it is estimated that India’s marriage industry is
of Rupees One lakh crores), low sex ratio, patriarchal mind set etc leads to
huge divide in the society. But politicisation of castes is one of the major
reasons why social problems are not easy to handle.
India starts its
journey of growth especially after 1991, but the growth could not translate
into inclusive development. Our largest employment sector i.e. agriculture
still suffering from erratic monsoon and other infrastructural issues thus
causing livelihood issues for millions of farmers. Rising inequality, jobless
growth, lower female workforce participation doesn’t only threaten present
social sector needs but also endanger the dreams of demographic dividend.
Non-adherence to public
values such as accountability, transparency, suggest that it concrete measures
and reforms are not going to take place in near future , it may lead to
unsatisfied public causing great instability in the country. Second
administrative reform commission has suggested code of ethics including various
public values and it need to be implemented soon.
Further incidences of misuse
of various laws such as sedition law (arrest of cartoonist), crimes by
government servants, delayed judicial reforms, legislative(hundreds of
redundant laws) and executive reluctance due to political vote banks shows that
if not tackled in coming decade, these would challenge adopted constitutional values.
This underdevelopment along with political blame game has accentuated the life
of Kashmir and country has witnessed a serious clash between army and
civilians.
In this regard
country’s preparedness requires a special mention. India is the largest arms
importer and seeing the transforming security architecture (cyber) it is
essential that India indigenise defence production (DRDO and other major
research agency need more funding to meet international standards). New defence
procurement policy, Rafael deal have some aspects of it. But if government
seriously don’t focus on defence indigenisation then it would be a great
threat.
Media Activism is also
a major challenge as it has power to change people’s mind. It has been seen in
last few years that how media ethics has been compromised to promote a biased
agenda. Increasing viewership and declining faith in political leadership and
bureaucracy is major reason for that.
India’s budget
allocation on major fronts like Health (USA 16%, China 6% but India approax 2%
of GDP), Education, Scientific Research and development(1.6% GDP) are very low
compared to many developed and developing countries. These need to be increased
to tackle various social and economic issues of the country which threatens national
security.
As stated before
National security needs an integrated approach and requires to be given highest
priority even above Fundamental rights like Right to free speech and expression
should for collective goods. Various institutions
in the country need to be reformed and there must be collaboration between
them. Media, civil society organisations can be used to promote awareness among
the people.
Though we have several
challenges but India has time to time proved its capacity to handle such challenges.
India’s unity and integrity is result of years of struggle and hard work. We
require to inculcate the feeling of Indian among all of us before being an
Individual.
